| Notes |
Global vaccine market
Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum
Amie Batson
Chief Strategy Officer, PATH
March 2016
PATH/Eric Becker
Agenda
• Overview of global vaccine market
• Demand
• Supply
• Financing
• Vaccine development and vaccine markets
• Product life‐cycle
Demand – critical factors
• Epidemiology:
•Global and local;
• Individual and community
• Perceived safety – vaccine
hesitancy
• Perceived value for money
• Fit with delivery system
PATH/Gabe Bienczycki
Demand – growing market
• Perceived Safety –
vaccine hesitancy
• Perceived value for
money
• Epidemiology: Global
and local
• Fit with delivery system
Source: Global Vaccine Market Model preliminary routine immunization market value analysis, March 2016
6
17
28
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
$ (Billions)
Vaccine Market Growth
UMICS
23%
LMICs
8%
LICs
4%
HICs
65%
Vaccine Market Share 2014
(US$ Approximate Value)
Global vaccine markets
Note: Only non‐PAHO countries with >250,000 annual birth cohort included.
Source: World Bank GNI 2013, UNPD Population Prospects 2012 Edition, GAVI Website, September 2014
MIC/LMIC
PRIVATE
US/EUROPE/JAPAN
GAVI/UN
MIC/LMIC
PUBLIC
Global vaccine markets
Note: Only non‐PAHO countries with >250,000 annual birth cohort included.
Source: World Bank GNI 2013, UNPD Population Prospects 2012 Edition, GAVI Website, September 2014
MIC/LMIC
PRIVATE
US/EUROPE/JAPAN
Vaccine hesitancy
GAVI/UN
POOLED PROCUREMENT
• Characteristics to fit
in delivery system
• Value for money
MIC/LMIC
PUBLIC
Supply
PATH/Satvir Malhotra
• Regulatory
requirements:
national and WHO PQ
• Predictability of
demand
• Reliability and scale of
production
Vaccine manufacturers
33
17
13
12
4
21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of market value
Other
Sanofi‐Pasteur
MSD
Merck
Pfizer
Sanofi‐Pasteur
GlaxoSmithKline
/Novartis
Source: Miloud Kaddar, WHO, “Global Vaccines Market Features and Trends” Presentation. Geneva, 2012; GAVI website, October 2014; PATH analysis
State-owned Privately held
Developing country vaccine manufacturers
BioE
Innovax
BBIL
Parastatal
global actors
Local
Emerging actors
Niche
National Global export
Serum
Institute of
India
LGLS
CNBG
BioFarma
BioM
Butantan
Institute Pasteur
de Dakar
Birmex
Biovac
Walvax
SK Chemicals
Panacea
Incepta
Arabio
Razi
Scale matters in vaccine manufacturing: larger
production can help drive down unit costs.
Illustrative only
Indicative cost per dose manufactured
Manufacturing volume
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, custom data acquired via website.
Gavi
57M doses
OECD
12M doses
*Assuming 80%
coverage
Financing
PATH/Jolene Beitz
• Perceived value for
money by market
• Tiered pricing
• Perceived reliability
and timeliness of
payor
The GAVI/UNICEF procurement has doubled in value in
the last 5 years alone.
Source:
UNICEF public
data
UNICEF contracts (2001‐14)
Demand (number of doses)
As countries transition from Gavi and ODA, vaccines will be
increasingly financed by domestic budgets.
Source: PATH Global Vaccines Market Model. Provided for illustrative purposes only.
Gavi transitions 2015‐2030
Demand (number of doses)
As countries transition from Gavi and ODA, vaccines will be
increasingly financed by domestic budgets.
Source: PATH Global Vaccines Market Model. Provided for illustrative purposes only.
Gavi transitions 2015‐2030
Demand (number of doses)
As countries transition from Gavi and ODA, vaccines will be
increasingly financed by domestic budgets.
Source: PATH Global Vaccines Market Model. Provided for illustrative purposes only.
Gavi transitions 2015‐2030
Vaccine Development – why markets matter
PATH/Amy MacIver
• Demand and financing depends
on characteristics of vaccine
• Fit with delivery system and
schedule
• Value for money
• Significant investment
Investments in vaccine development and production are
significant. The expected market size is a critical factor.
*All costs sourced from Light, Donald W., Jon Kim Andrus, and Rebecca N. Warburton. "Estimated research and development costs of rotavirus vaccines." Vaccine 27.47 (2009): 6627‐6633, updated to 2016 USD
Time (years)
Investment
$ million
Preclinical
Phase I & II
Phase III
Licensure and production
capital
Decision
Gate
Decision
Gate
Product life‐cycle
Product launch Early market penetration Maturity
Number of
products 1 1‐2 Several
Product capacity Low Medium High
Cost/unit High Relatively high Yield and learning curve gains
Price High Tiers (High/middle income)
Competitive
‐ Multiple tiers
‐ Lowest tier for
the poorest
PATH/Amy MacIver
Changing landscape ‐ 2006
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2007
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2008
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2009
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2010
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2011
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2012
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2013
This image cannot currently be displayed.
Source:
UNICEF public data
Changing landscape ‐ 2014
This image cannot currently be displayed.
Source:
UNICEF public data
Hib vaccine introduction: high‐ and low‐income markets
Source: International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Vaccine Information Management System (VIMS) Global Vaccine Introduction Report, December 2015. Johns Hopkins
Bloomberg School of Public Health.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Percentage of countries that have
universally introduced vaccine
Years since first introduction
High‐income markets
Low‐income markets
~10+ years
PCV vaccine introduction: high‐ and low‐income markets
Source: International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Vaccine Information Management System (VIMS) Global Vaccine Introduction Report, December 2015.
Note: Limited projections are available for PCV introduction in high‐income countries
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Percentage of countries that have
universally introduced vaccine
Years since first introduction
High‐income markets
Low‐income markets
~5 years
New vaccines are reaching children in developing countries
much more rapidly.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Percentage of countries that have
universally introduced vaccine
Years since first introduction
Hib HIC
Hib LIC
PCV HIC
PCV LIC
Note: Limited projections are available for PCV introduction in high‐income countries
Source: International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Vaccine Information Management System (VIMS) Global Vaccine Introduction Report, December 2015.
Tiered pricing enabled GAVI countries to access PCV earlier in
the products lifecycles
Source: Global Vaccines Market Model, March 2016
$‐
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
1M
7M
13M
19M
25M
31M
37M
43M
49M
55M
61M
67M
73M
79M
85M
91M
97M
103M
109M
115M
121M
127M
133M
139M
145M
151M
157M
163M
169M
175M
181M
187M
193M
199M
205M
211M
217M
223M
229M
2015 AVERAGE PRICE PER DOSE
SHARE OF DEMAND
USA
Other HICs
UMICs
LMICs
Gavi
PCV price and volume by Market 2015
Price tiering has also been critical in accelerating access to
rotavirus vaccines.
Source: Global Vaccines Market Model, March 2016
$‐
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
1M
4M
7M
10M
13M
16M
19M
22M
25M
28M
31M
34M
37M
40M
43M
46M
49M
52M
55M
58M
61M
64M
67M
70M
73M
76M
79M
82M
85M
88M
91M
94M
97M
100M
103M
106M
109M
2015 AVERAGE PRICE PER DOSE
SHARE OF WASTAGE‐ADJUSTED DEMAND
USA
Other HICs
UMICs
LMICs
Gavi
Rotavirus vaccine price and volume by Market 2015
This image cannot currently be displayed.
Vaccines without a dual market face other challenges.
Meningitis A vaccine was developed through a public private partnership.
• DEMAND: African MOHs request
conjugate Men A vaccine available at
~$0.50/dose
• DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPLY: PATH‐
WHO partnership with Serum Institute
of India, FDA, NIH, and others
• FINANCING: BMGF invest $75 million;
gov’ts and donors purchase doses
• Vaccine available on market in 2010;
TODAY – 235 million people protected
• By 2020, expect to protect ~ 400
million
The challenges – managing the vicious cycle:
Financing
Demand
Supply
Uncertainty about
demand leads to
limited investments
in capacity
Low capacity
results in limited
supply which
creates shortages
and keeps prices
relatively high
Higher prices raise
questions about
value for money and
increase uncertainty
about demand and
financing
Financing
Demand
Supply
The challenges – creating a virtuous cycle:
Reliable demand leads to
investment in adequate
capacity and efficiently
managed production
Lower costs translate
into affordable prices
for different markets
stimulating demand
Appropriately sized
capacity increases
efficiency of
production ‐ benefit
from economies of
scale and supply all
markets
ot currently be displayed. PATH/Gabe Bienczycki Thank you! www.path.org This image cannot currently be displayed.
Global vaccine markets
Note: Only non‐PAHO countries with >250,000 annual birth cohort included.
Source: World Bank GNI 2013, UNPD Population Prospects 2012 Edition, GAVI Website, September 2014
MIC/LMIC
PRIVATE
US/EUROPE/JAPAN
• Vaccine hesitancy
GAVI/UN
POOLED PROCUREMENT
• Characteristics to fit
in delivery system
• Value for money
MIC/LMIC
PUBLIC |